local-sufficiency

[Roberto Verzola <rverzola@phil.gn.apc.org>]

Hi Tom. Yes, we have to run the model through many generations. Your
model appears to be one of unlimited growth -- each generation's needs
are larger than the previous one's. I think it is obvious that if we
ran this model long enough, it will use up all resources accessible to
it. But if you accept a model where the next generation's needs are
more or less at par with the previous generation's, and if these needs
can be met with renewable resources, then the model is sustainable. I
would even concede the possibility of occasional expansion in needs,
as the capacity of a generation to use a resource more efficiently
also improves.

About your point that self-sufficient communities have to increase
economic flow into the community to support growth: this is obviously
a strategy that won't work for all communities in the world, just as
it is impossible for *all* countries to have a positive trade balance.
If one community enjoys a net inflow of resources, at least one other
community must be suffering a net *outflow* of resources. This might
be avoided if all communities extract all their additional needs from
their own capital/resource base until this is used up. But that is not
sustainable either.

Roberto

 >Let us think about this for a minute. For example, There is a farm
 >family, wife, husband, two children etc. The farm provides a basic
 >income for an acceptable life style. Now the children grow up and the
 >farmer wants to retire. The farmer and his wife will live longer in a
 >world where the life style increases demands on resources greater than
 >the previous generatiion. This means the farm must support the first
 >generation for a longer time and at a greater per capita/year cost. It
 >is obvious that the farm can not support the extended family, or even
 >one of the children and his/her family. Children go to college, are more
 >expensive to provide for and the current operation has increased
 >demands. Basically, the succeeding generations must either make the farm
 >more economically productive or the operation must expand, essentially
 >creating larger operations and fewer farmers.
 >
 >The example is a small version of what has happened many times, around
 >the world. Self sufficient communities have to increase the economic
 >flow into the community to support growth, either in numbers or improved
 >lifestyle from goods to health systems. The model needs to be run
 >through several generations or one needs to read the history books.
 >
 >thoughts?
 >
 >tom abeles
 >
 >
 >