a rural response to y2k

[Roberto Verzola <rverzola@phil.gn.apc.org>]

The brief article below is meant for a rural audience in a developing
country. -- Roberto

Y2K: Will it affect us?
by Roberto Verzola

Developed countries worry that millions of computers and other
automated equipment may break down in the year 2000 (Y2K). To save
space, early computer programmers recorded only the year's last two
digits (e.g., 55) instead of all four (i.e., 1955). When year 2000
comes, machines may assume that the last two digits (i.e., 00) mean
1900. This can confuse them and cause them to fail. Because billions
of machines must be tested and the problem was ignored for many years,
remedial work is impossible to finish on time.

Y2K failures can disrupt banking and other financial services,
electrical power, communications, land, sea and air transport, etc.
Automated plants like oil refineries, nuclear, chemical, and
industrial plants are vulnerable. Panic-buying and heavy withdrawals
in anticipation of future disruptions can lead to early food riots and
bank runs. At worst, the United Nations says, the crisis can "paralyze
our civilization." We can also have minor disruptions only, it said,
or "anything in between."

Will it affect the Philippines? Definitely. We import basic needs like
food (two million tons of rice alone in 1998), oil, industrial
equipment and raw materials. If our imports don't come or are delayed,
food prices will shoot up, businesses will slow down and many will
lose their jobs.

Here are some suggestions for coping with the crisis:

1. Put the highest importance on local food supply
   * Plant edible crops on every piece of available land
   * Switch from export crops to food crops and some cash crops
   * Stop activities that threaten farms (like mining, logging,
     industrial pollution, and land conversions)
   * Store several months' supply of staple food within community
     reach

2. Production tools and facilities will be more important than money.
   * Choose traditional seeds that don't need fertilizers or
     pesticides
   * Keep native farm animals that don't need commercial feeds and
     antibiotics
   * Negotiate government loans for your production needs now
   * Get tools and equipment that don't need oil or cash to run (e.g.,
     a carabao is better than a tractor)

3. Minimize the risks instead of trying to maximize gain
   * Cooperate, do not compete
   * Share resources, do not monopolize them
   * Take care of the most vulnerable members of the community
   * Don't forget the long-term (e.g., plant fruit trees all around
     you)