UN's View on the Y2K Problem

[John Walker <jwalker@networx.on.ca>]

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NOTE: I have been following the Y2K controversy for several years
now. There is no doubt that this problem will cause some disruptions.
No one knows for sure how serious they will be but given that we
have moved to a Global Economy, much of it based on computers to
deliver goods and services, it would be prudent to make some
preparations.

The CSS Internet News will be covering the issue extensively in '99.

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Hunger HURTS, let's make sure everyone has enough this holiday season!
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Statement by Mr. Joseph E. Connor 
Under-Secretary-General for Management, United Nations

http://www.un.org/members/yr2000/meeting/statements/connor-slideframe.
htm

Mr. Chairman, 
Distinguished delegates,

I would like to welcome you to this meeting and appreciate the
opportunity to address you here today on the Year 2000 problem.

Chart 1: 

The essence of the Year 2000 dilemma is that it is impossible to
accurately predict the effect on our world. The simple transition
from one date to the next could either paralyze our civilization, or
just confound simple systems, or anything in between.

There are 386 days left to the new millennium, of which only some
260 are working days. This does not give us much time to assess where
we stand and take all necessary action. 

Chart 2: 

What we do know is that the Y2K event represents the largest
computing project that the information technology industry has faced
in the 50-year history of its existence. It is estimated that the
global cost for remedying the problem could be as high as $600
billion. Possible litigation after the event could reach $1.4
trillion.

We also know that no matter how much we prepare, there will be
aspects that will be overlooked and will only manifest themselves in
the new millennium.

I would like to focus today in my brief remarks on what may be
expected to go wrong and the importance of contingency planning as
the means to reduce the impact of these failures.

Chart 3: 

While the U.N. has taken many steps to ensure that its own systems
and facilities are Y2K compliant, this Organization, like private
enterprises and governments, has numerous external dependencies and
relationships over which it has no control. Y2K compliancy extends
beyond these borders.

Chart 4:

Two things make Y2K fundamentally different from other situations:

First, while the consequences of most reoccurring disasters can to
some extent be foreseen, there is no way to draw on past experiences
and predict what is going to fail and what consequences these
failures will have.

All we know for sure is the timing.

Failures may occur in many processes and many places at the same
time. In an increasingly networked world, non-compliant data may
create a "domino" effect, affecting even compliant systems.

Furthermore, not all failures will occur at midnight on 31 December
1999. Some of these failures are already occurring, such as credit
cards being rejected as "expired" at the point of sale. Other
problems will continue to appear well into the next century as
unanticipated or unresolved date-related operations are executed.

Chart 5:

The OECD report entitled "The Year 2000 problem: Impact and Actions"
published in early October 1998 presents an excellent summary of the
world's state of preparedness to deal with the situation. 

That report stated that strong international cooperation is
essential. Bilateral as well as multi-lateral tests, plans and
discussions are more necessary than ever before, given the truly
global nature of the challenge we are facing. Y2K is not just another
technical problem which can be left to experts to resolve. It is
foremost a management problem which has to be addressed at a high
level.

Chart 6: 

The report also makes it clear that disruptions are unavoidable,
that many cross-border activities will be affected, ranging from
transportation to energy distribution, from defense to
telecommunications.

The Global Summit on Year 2000 held in London from 15-16 October
1998 to coincide with the publication of the OECD report on the Year
2000 also focused on strengthening international cooperation.

Chart 7:

In this connection, the scope of Y2K is daunting. Many organizations
and governments have invested massive intellectual effort as well as
unprecedented sums of money to dealing with this problem, yet this
may not be enough.

In addition to the things for which there was simply no time or
skills to address, the "domino" effect has to be considered. External
failures may cause compliant systems and facilities to malfunction
or fail altogether. 

An example frequently quoted is that of air transport. Many major
airlines have already stated that their airplanes and operations
will be Y2K compliant but are concerned that the hundreds of air
traffic control and airport systems on which they rely may not be.

Chart 8:

There is no doubt that the complexity of Y2K will be stressed many
times during this event. The factors outside the control of an
Organization, some of them related to vendors and service providers,
but many of them in the public sector, are a major cause for
concern.

The spectrum of public panic has been raised by several publications
and many stories in the press indicate that a number of countries
may be developing plans to handle civil disorder or panic - from
massive cash withdrawals from banks to looting.

Chart 9: 

Chart 9, which is based on information presented in the OECD report,
groups major activities in terms of the degree to which these are
likely to be affected by Y2K and summarizes on a global basis the
amount of work that has been completed to achieve compliance.

As you see, finance, banking, insurance and airlines have a high
degree of compliance. Telecommunications, manufactors, energy and
shipping have a medium degree of compliance. Government services
fall between medium and low, while healthcare, retail services, small
and medium businesses, agriculture and construction have a low degree
of compliance.

Information from other sources suggests that the degree of
compliance varies tremendously between countries, but that even the
best prepared countries are going to encounter significant problems. 

Chart 10: 

Remediation work remains our highest priority. But the human and
financial resources required to carry out remedial work are limited.
Therefore, the focus must be on prioritizing systems and facilities
in terms of their impact on an organization's ability to fulfil its
objectives. We have to get used to the fact that some systems and
facilities will not be addressed.

This current phase, leading to the new millennium, really is all
about assessing risks and managing them accordingly.

Once we are in the new millennium, remediation work will need to
continue - likely for quite some time. All systems and facilities
left behind in the current phase will then have to be addressed. 

The situation in early 2000 may be that many systems may function
properly and many systems and facilities may have failed.
Alternative procedures will have to be put in place to replace faulty
processes.

This operational recovery will be most successful if it is based on
properly developed, documented and tested contingency plans.

Chart 12:

Y2K brings an additional dimension to these plans: that of multiple
simultaneous failure, which involves key vendors, service providers,
clients, staff and the environment in which the organization
operates.

Well developed contingency plans implemented by people familiar with
the procedures will greatly reduce the impact of disruptions by
providing a framework where individuals have a clear understanding
of their roles and responsibilities and know what is expected of them
in an emergency situation.

The establishment of contingency plans is a logistic function,
little related to information management. However, technology has a
role to play, particularly in establishing reliable communication
during an emergency.

Chart 13:

Clearly it is not practical to make contingency plans for
everything. It is therefore essential to have a very good
understanding of what is critical to an Organization. Within this
framework, it is then possible to define specific objectives for what
constitutes an acceptable level of performance in an emergency and
for how long such arrangements should be in effect. 

Chart 14:

There are a number of questions which should be addressed in order
to determine the quality and robustness of a contingency plan at the
time it is developed and tested. The answers to these questions will
give a good indication how successful the plan will be in the end.

The more effort that is put into documenting the plan in detail and
ensuring that all key players and other parties are aware of their
roles and responsibilities, the more briefings, discussions,
rehearsals have been carried out and the more overall buy-in of this
process has been achieved, the greater will be the chances that the
plan will be implemented with a reasonable degree of success.

When it comes to execution, the ability to act effectively on the
spot and deal with the unknown, is also a major factor in the success
of a contingency plan. 

Contingency planning will not be simple and there will be setbacks.
Experience shows that when a recovery plan is implemented, the first
test is invariably unsuccessful. The amount of work involved with
putting together a contingency plan must not be underestimated. The
same applies to testing such plans. 

In addition, information on the requirements and components of a
good contingency plan will be provided to you in a separate paper
which will be distributed at the conclusion of my statement.

Chart 15:

There is also much valuable information, guidelines and models on
the subject of contingency planning on the World Wide Web which can
be accessed through any of the search engines available.

With timely remedial actions and good contingency plans for
recovery, we should be able to limit the effect of the millennium bug
on most people and institutions to inconvenience rather than major
disaster. 

Chart 16:

Nevertheless, the Y2K problem cannot be postponed. The date is
inevitable and related only to the calendar. For Y2K projects, the
deadline is fixed and not negotiable. Its impact will depend on the
degree to which the issue has been dealt with and the contingency
plans that have been put in place. There remains much to be done.
Your discussions here today will be most beneficial for all.

Good luck.

-----------

Also in this issue:

- CANADA: 'Martial law' rushed for Y2K chaos
    Report warns government to be ready to invoke federal Emergencies Act
- British government warns people to hoard food to prepare for Year
  2000 computer bug
    A British government agency has told the country to stock up at
    least two weeks' food supply in the event of shortages caused by the
    Year 2000 computer bug, The Observer newspaper reported Sunday.
- French Web surfers urge boycott of France Telecom
    French Web surfers, angry over soaring phone bills, called for an
    Internet "strike" on Sunday to drive home their message to French
    telephone giant France Telecom.
- Y2K Officials Come Clean With Each Other
    UNITED NATIONS -- A U.N. leader said Friday that central banking
    systems and telecommunications systems are making progress in
    dealing with the year 2000 computer bug.
- Statement by Mr. Joseph E. Connor 
  Under-Secretary-General for Management, United Nations
    I would like to welcome you to this meeting and appreciate the
    opportunity to address you here today on the Year 2000 problem.
    The essence of the Year 2000 dilemma is that it is impossible to
    accurately predict the effect on our world. The simple transition
    from one date to the next could either paralyze our civilization, or
    just confound simple systems, or anything in between.
    There are 386 days left to the new millennium, of which only some
    260 are working days. This does not give us much time to assess where
    we stand and take all necessary action. 
- New Lists and Journals
    1) 4 Her Health
    2) Readio - A New York City Photo Magazine
    3) Fortytalk
    4) Op.Cit
    5) Electronic Journal of Human Sexuality
    6) Virtual Denizen
    7) Eclectica
    8) Digital Women
    9) Trends in Software Engineering Process Management
   10) Technoinsurance Times
   11) GovExec
   12) Newsletter on Decision and Reasoning Under Uncertainty



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