Y2K in Context (Part 2 of 2)

[Paul Swann <pswann@easynet.co.uk>]

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company may not be able to supply the drug to the pharmacist, and
people with illnesses will not receive their prescriptions. The NHS
has been slammed for being well behind schedule in dealing with its
enormous Y2K problem, and one authoritative estimate puts the likely
number of Y2K related deaths in UK hospitals alone at between
6-10,000. (17)

If a similar analysis is applied to the food that arrives on the
supermarket shelf via "just in time" delivery systems, or if we
consider the implications of the banking or social security systems
functioning with reduced efficiency, or of telecommunications
breakdowns or public utility outages, it becomes clear that when we
look ahead to the early months of the year 2000, we simply can't take
anything for granted.

The British government, despite their low-key approach to public
information, are certainly taking Y2K seriously. According to a front
page headline article in The Guardian on November 17th, the army has
been placed on standby to "airlift police from hotspot to hotspot in
the event of a collapse in public services caused by the millennium
computer bug".

The article continued:

"John Evans, chief constable of Devon and Cornwall, yesterday
confirmed on behalf of the Association of Chief Police Officers that
talks are going on with the military over their role in emergency
civil defence planning because of the chances of civil disruption
triggered by the computer bug problem." (18)


If contingency planning for worst case scenarios is being conducted at
the highest levels, surely we need to do the same in our local
communities and neighbourhoods. And yet many people - even
intelligent, battle-hardened social activists - seem to find it
difficult to comprehend the possible consequences of widespread
systems failures. Some seem to go into a state of psychological denial
that any real problems exist. But the potential for catastrophe is
self-evident to anyone who thinks this thing through, and ignoring the
problem is short sighted in the extreme.



~ What comes next? ~


Whether it's Y2K or some other systems failure that brings down the
global economy, it's clear that we should be asking ourselves what
kind of societies we want to live in. This dialogue will need to
engage some radical thinking.

Clearly there's no way back from our hi-tech civilization to a lo-tech
Garden of Eden. As Ken Wilber points out, each step forward in the
evolution of consciousness includes the best of what has gone before
and adds something new. Futurist thinking must include our continuing
technological progress.

But if we are to avoid the descent into the worst nightmares of a
Brave New World, a major shift in our approach to science and
technology must occur. The promise and threat of new developments such
as genetic engineering, artificial intelligence and nanotechnology,
must somehow be contained within an infinitely more enlightened and
compassionate collective consciousness.

Perhaps Y2K will provide the impetus for a radical re-think of the way
we design our social and technological systems. As knowledge
management expert Ted Lumley writes:

"The Y2K problem is bringing to our awareness a 'design flaw' of major
proportions. It is the same design flaw...that others are struggling
with in terms of globalization versus bioregionalism in economic
systems; i.e. that we are evolving 'robotic' or rationo-biological
type systems designs rather than 'robocop' or bio-rational type
systems designs."

He explains: "The design issue in our society is to what degree our
systems should look like robocop (intuition over rationality) or like
a robot (rationality over intuition). Social systems co-ordination
webs have been largely organic and intuitive. However, (with) the
coming of global communications and computing networks...we have
unthinkingly opted for the (rational) robotic...instead of the
(intuitive) robocop design.

"So the scenario is that society just added the 'computer' as a new
subsystem or 'tool' within its web of organic and mechanical
components. The new tool is built to be short-circuit free until the
year 2000, at which time, all warranties cease...The computer-based
co-ordinating web will not only 'fritz' in an unpredictable way within
itself, the fritzed information it sends out...will amplify this
chaotic signal by translating it into chaotic behaviors within and
across the overall system." (19)


If Lumley is right, we clearly have a serious problem.



~ Organising for community preparedness ~


To prepare for the possibility (some would say inevitability) of a
global systemic failure either in the year 2000 or soon afterwards, we
will need to develop community resilience and preparedness. The term
"community resilience" was coined by British born, US based
socio-economist and change agent Robert Theobold. As a futurist he
recognised the potential danger of Y2K some time ago and has set up a
project that he hopes will involve up to 200 communities worldwide.
(20)

The Community Resilience project aims to encourage development of the
skills and resources needed to deal with the possibility of economic
and social collapse. The beauty of the project is that even if Y2K
turns out to be a damp squib and the global economy somehow muddles
through the growing crisis without coming apart at the seams, the
learning process involved in developing community resilience will
itself be a positive outcome.

If we are to create new systems and structures to deal with potential
catastrophes in our local communities, we will need to develop a new
openness and learn to communicate and co-operate with each other in
ways that we're usually only capable of in times of national
emergency. In their excellent article "The Year 2000: Social Chaos or
Social Transformation?" (21), John L. Petersen, Margaret Wheatley and
Myron Kellner-Rogers write:

"Y2K is a technology-induced problem, but it will not and cannot be
solved by technology. It creates societal problems that can only be
solved by humans. We must begin to address potential social responses.
We need to be engaged in this discourse within our organizations, our
communities, and across the traditional boundaries of competition and
national borders. Without such planning, we will slide into the Year
2000 as hapless victims of our technology."


In practical terms, local community preparedness groups must come
together for the purpose of carrying out contingency planning,
auditing the needs of the vulnerable, and devising ways and means of
dealing with the range of forseeable problems, such as power cuts,
water shortages, bank closures and so on.

Since Leader of the House of Commons Margaret Beckett has acknowledged
that the banking system is vulnerable to collapse if as little as 6%
of people withdraw their cash at the same time (22), one avenue for
community preparedness groups to explore is the setting up of local
complementary currencies. There are already several hundred LETS
(Local Exchange Trading Systems) schemes operating in the UK, and
these can play an important role in the community building that needs
to be done.

With just a year to go before the millennium bomb goes off, we in the
UK need to continue raising awareness of Y2K by all the means at our
disposal. We have to hope and trust that sooner or later a critical
mass of people will be alive to the issue and that community
preparedness groups will begin to mushroom. This seems to be happening
in the USA, where Y2K activists are now receiving the support of a
congressional committee. Tom Atlee, a leading Y2K activist, writes:

"There are now over 100 (some say 150) Y2K community preparedness
groups in the US...These groups are not being centrally organized;
they are popping up like poppies, and finding each other through each
other and building networks around themselves and out into the world.
They are already self-organizing, and eager for help.

"In many places Y2K is bringing together stakeholders who've never
talked together before, because businesses, community people,
government agencies and nonprofits suddenly realize they're
intricately tied to each other and can only survive Y2K disruptions
through clarifying conversation...

"Conferences of specialists (futurists, bankers, Y2K programmers,
mayors, etc.) are happening more and more, to caucus on their roles
and needs during Y2K...

"Increasingly, people are realizing that Y2K raises the grain on
hundreds of questions about our collective fate. How did this happen
to us?  Why hasn't it been fixed? What is the proper role of
technology? In a complex society, who is responsible for
system-generated effects? How much should we depend on technology and
the global economy for our sustenance and meaning, compared to how
much we depend on our neighbors and nature? What is the spiritual
significance of Y2K?

"... Y2K is a problem of virtually infinite complexity,
unpredictability and universality.  Every effort to manage it is
running up against those facts. Not only is no one in charge but it is
becoming increasingly clear that no one is * going * to be in charge,
or even * could * be. The more I work with it, the more I realize that
Y2K is going to be a wild dance (starting early in 1999) with millions
of dancers -- and everyone in the audience is going to be drawn into
it. In the end, there will be no spectators."  (23)



~ Conclusion ~


In summary, Y2K is a technical problem with an immovable deadline and
unknown social consequences. We won't know how serious the effects
will be until they happen, but it is acknowledged that there is
potential for Y2K-related accidents in nuclear weapons systems and the
nuclear power industry. The balance of expert opinion suggests a
best-case scenario of escalating systems failures through 1999 and
severe disruption to national infrastructures in the early weeks of
the year 2000.

At the same time, fundamental flaws in the global economy are being
exposed. Corporate globalization has induced a "rush to the bottom" in
terms of living standards and environmental protection, leaving social
and political chaos in its wake. The alternative is a re-balancing of
our economic and political systems in favour of decentralised local
control - a process in which radical reform of the debt-based monetary
system will be a key factor.

As Dee Hock suggests in the quotation at the start of this article,
and as Ken Wilber and others affirm, it seems that we are living at a
time of momentous change. The global crisis may be symptomatic of the
passing of an age and the birth of a new Gaia-centered consciousness.

The prospect of widespread technological failure certainly gives us
cause for reflection on the way our civilization has evolved. If
there's a lesson to be learnt from the Y2K debacle, it is that the
post-Enlightenment reductionist paradigm has ultimately failed us and
that we need to develop a more natural and holistic approach to
systems design.

The immediate challenge is to prepare ourselves and our communities as
best we can for the possibility of technological and/or economic
collapse. The fallout from Y2K may or may not turn out to be serious,
but it's a fair assumpton that if the impact was to hit us today, our
lack of preparedness at the local level would almost certainly result
in serious social chaos. With a year to go before the worst effects of
computer system failures start to occur, we still have time to
"prepare for the worst and hope for the best."



~ Afterword ~


One of the most interesting comments I've heard on Y2K is that it acts
very much like a Rorschach Test...what you see in the pattern of
information is a reflection of your personality. If you're prone to
doom and gloom, you'll find plenty to convince you that TEOTWAWKI is
at hand. Alternatively, if you look at the world through rose coloured
glasses, you'll need no persuading that Y2K will turn out to be a lot
of hot air.

For a comprehensive discussion of the technical and social
implications of Y2K by an experienced programmer who takes the middle
path, I recommend a 40 page article entitled "The Year 2000 (Y2K)
Computer Problem" by Michael Goodfellow (24).

Goodfellow's bottom line?

"The worst thing you can do is sit around doing nothing, especially if
you are a programmer. How are you going to answer people afterwards
when they ask what you did to prevent this?"



~ References ~


(1) "The Trillion-Dollar Vision of Dee Hock". M. Mitchell Waldrop,
Fast Company, issue 5

(2) "A Call to Action: The National and Global Implications of the
Year 2000 Embedded Systems Crisis". Paula D. Gordon, Ph.D
<http://www.year2000.com/archive/NFaction.html>

(3) "Atom plants told to act on safety or risk disaster". Paul Brown,
The Guardian, December 17, 1998

(4) "The Bug in the Bomb: The Impact of the Year 2000 Problem on
Nuclear Weapons". Michael Craig, published by the British American
Security Information Council. <http://www.basicint.org/y2krept.htm>

(5) "Time Bomb 2000: What the Year 2000 Computer Crisis Means to You"
Edward Yourdon & Jennifer Yourdon (Prentice Hall PTR, 1998) pp 98-100

(6) "Y2K: So Many Bugs...So Little Time". Peter de Jager.
<http://www.sciam.com/1999/0199issue/0199dejager.html>

(7) "Floods: can the misery and mayhem suffered by millions be
prevented?". John Vidal, The Guardian, September 19, 1998

(8) "When Corporations Rule the World". David C. Korten (Kumarian
Press/Berrett-Koehler, 1995)

(9) "Your Mortal Enemy". An edited and amended extract of David
Korten's Schumacher Lecture in Bristol, October 17 1998. The Guardian,
October 21 1998

(10) "The Grip of Death: a study of modern money, debt slavery and
destructive economics". Michael Rowbotham (Jon Carpenter, 1998)

(11) Global Economic Reform Campaign
<http://www.geocities.com/RainForest/Vines/9981/>

(12) Citizens' Public Trust Treaty
<http://www.gn.apc.org/negreens/cptt.htm>

(13) "Small is Beautiful, Big is Subsidised: How Our Taxes Contribute
to Environmental Breakdown". Steven Gorelick (principal author).
International Society for Ecology & Culture, October 1998
<isecuk@gn.apc.org>

(14) "A Brief History of Everything". Ken Wilber (Gill & Macmillan,
1996)

(15) "Disaster: The Millennium Time Bomb". BBC2/Stone City
Productions, 1998

(16) "Blackout Lessons". Sean Morris, 'Civil Protection', issue 45,
Summer/Autumn 1998, Year 2000 Date Change Special Edition

(17) Professor Mike Smith, St. Bartholomew's Hospital, London

(18) "Army on standby over bug". Alan Travis, The Guardian, November
17th, 1998

(19) "Y2K and a Design for Evolution". Email, December 1998. Copies
available from <pswann@easynet.co.uk>

(20) Community Resilience Project
<http://www.resilientcommunities.org>

(21) "The Year 2000: Social Chaos or Social Transformation?" John L.
Petersen, Dr. Margaret Wheatley and  Myron Kellner-Rogers
<http://www.angelfire.com/ca/rhomer/social.html>

(22) Millennium Compliance (Quarterly Review), Hansard columns
902-917, December 2nd, 1998 <http://www.parliament.the-stationery-
office.co.uk/pa/cm199899/cmhansrd/cm981202/debtext/81202-25.htm>

(23) Tom Atlee. Email, December 1998.

(24)" The Year 2000 (Y2K) Computer Problem". Michael Goodfellow
<mgoodfel@best.com> <http://www.best.com/~mgoodfel/y2k.htm>



~ Y2K recommended reading and resources ~


"The Year 2000: Social Chaos or Social Transformation?" John L.
Petersen, Dr. Margaret Wheatley and  Myron Kellner-Rogers
<http://www.angelfire.com/ca/rhomer/social.html>

"The Y2K Crisis: A Global Ticking Time Bomb?" Transcripts of keynote
talks at a conference organized by the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, June 2nd 1998
<http://www.csis.org/html/y2ktran2.html>

"The Bug in the Bomb: The Impact of the Year 2000 Problem on Nuclear
Weapons".  Michael Craig, published by the British American Security
Information Council. <http://www.basicint.org/y2krept.htm>

"Nightmare on Main Street: The Approaching Y2K Disaster". Robert Sam
Anson, 'Vanity Fair', January 1999. (Edited extracts published as
"Apocalypse 2000? Millennium crisis: a ticking timebomb."  The
Observer, December 13, 1998)

"Y2K: The Millennial Reckoning", a Trend Monitor International report.
Jan Wyllie <jan@trendmon.demon.co.uk>
<http://www.trendmon.demon.co.uk>

"The Year 2000 (Y2K) Computer Problem". Michael Goodfellow
<mgoodfel@best.com> <http://www.best.com/~mgoodfel/y2k.htm>

"Year 2000: who will do what and when will they do it? Towards
actions." Douglass Carmichael <http://tmn.com/~doug>

"Set Recovery On". Two articles by Infomagic in Cory Hamasaki's Y2K
Weather Reports: <http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP100.HTM> and
<http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP103.HTM>

"Embedded Systems and the Year 2000 Problem". Mark A. Frautschi, Ph.D.
<http://www.tmn.com/~frautsch/y2k2.html>

"Y2K Citizen's Action Guide". Edited by Eric Utne
<http://www.utne.com/y2k>

"Time runs out". A 24 page survey of the millennium bug, published in
The Economist. <http://www.year2000.com/archive/NFeconomist.html>

"Time Bomb 2000: What the Year 2000 Computer Crisis Means to You".
Edward Yourdon & Jennifer Yourdon (Prentice Hall PTR, 1998)

Community Resilience project <http://www.resilientcommunities.org>

Y2K Community Project <http://www.y2kcommunity.org>

The Arlington Institute's Project Y2K
<http://www.azstarnet.com/~nuu/Other_DOCS/project_y2k_arlington.htm>

Peter de Jager's Year 2000 website <http://www.year2000.com>

Dr Edward Yardeni's Y2K Awareness website
<http://www.yardeni.com/y2kaction.html>

Tom Atlee's Co-Intelligence website
<http://www.co-intelligence.org/y2k_breakthrough.html>

Alan E. Lewis's Y2K website <http://www.provide.net/~aelewis/y2ko>

Karen Anderson's Y2K website for women <http://www.y2kwomen.com/>

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

uk-y2k-action is a forum for:

* the exchange of information on Y2K
* the development of mutual support between activists
* the co-ordination of community preparedness initiatives
  in the UK & Ireland

To subscribe please send a blank email to:

uk-y2k-action-subscribe@egroups.com

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Paul Swann
Director, London Human Rights Forum
Co-ordinator, Y2K Community Action
14 Beacon Hill
London N7 9LY
UK
Tel. +44 (0)171-609 7764
<pswann@easynet.co.uk>

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~