Y2K responses and flawed mindsets; draft only

[Bob Olsen <bobolsen@tao.ca>]

>From: Roberto Verzola <rverzola@PHIL.GN.APC.ORG>
>     The U.K. and Canada, for example, have began advising their
>citizens to stock up several weeks' supply of food due to a possible
>breakdown in their distribution system. This can trigger in 1999 a mad
>rush by other countries -- and within every country, by families who

 See "Clinton on Y2K, Dec 23, 1998" posted to this list Dec 31

"The President's commission supports local community preparedness
efforts, including storing some food in schools, and preparing heated
contingency shelters."

http://www.usia.gov/current/news/latest/98122301.glt.html?/products/washfile
/newsitem.shtml

US Information Agency
23 December 1998

TRANSCRIPT: ABRAMS CITES INDUSTRY-GOVERNMENT Y2K COOPERATION (Industry
to help other groups become Y2K ready) (7200)

Washington -- A  U.S. official says senior people in government are
working closely with private industry to develop contingency plans to
deal with the Year 2000 (Y2K) computer problem and find ways to respond
to emergencies that may occur.


>can afford it -- to stock up food themselves, leading to artificial
>shortages and panic-buying in other areas of the economy. It can also
>lead to a socially-explosive situation where some supplies may be
>rotting in basements of the well-off, while others go hungry because
>there is nothing left to buy or the prices are sky-high.

 Supermarkets may have inventory on hand, but may not open their
 doors if they cannot operate their electrically powered cash registers.

 Refrigerated foods in supermarkets and warehouses may spoil and be
 thrown out while people are going hungry.  That could provoke riots.


>     The financial system is even more sensitive to mass psychology.

 A minority have "financial instruments".
 EVERYONE needs to eat!
 Disruption of food supply, I expect will be far more sensitive to
 mass psychology.

 What happens if disruptions lead to a 10% reduction in the supply
 of a food commodity?  My guess is that the price could increase 50%.

 If supply was reduced by 50%, the price could go up 5-10 fold.
 What happens to those of us who cannot afford those prices?
 THAT is when mass psychology comes into play!

 Is there any discussion of price controls?

 The way to prevent panic is to tell people in 1999 that the
 govt is prepared to ensure an adequate food supply and to control
 prices.

>     Panic can also be triggered by the apocalyptic messages of
>millennarian groups, as their doomsday scenarios in anticipation of

 Panic can also be triggered by:
 - the facts
 - the lack of official information, leading to uncontrolled rumours.

In Canada the Government is preparing to use the Emergency Measures Act
to suspend civil liberties.  One rumour is that they may implement this
in Sept 1999, to remove activists before Year 2000 arrives. In the absence
of official information, rumours are the only source of info.


http://www.ottawacitizen.com/national/981212/2098082.html

http://www.thestar.com/thestar/editorial/updates/news/9812130_Y2K-MARTIAL-.h
tml

              TORONTO STAR         Dec 12, 1998, 18:54 est

                  Documents call for martial law in case of
  Today's         Y2K meltdown                             
 Issue                                                     
  Back Issues     OTTAWA (CP) - The federal government     
                  should consider invoking the Emergencies 
                  Act, the successor to the War Measures
 [Image]          Act, in case the millennium bug causes
  [Webfinder]     widespread chaos, according to documents
 [Image]          obtained by the Ottawa Citizen.  

 [Image]          A report by the Year 2000 contingency
  [Navigation]    planning group of Emergency Preparedness
                  Canada calls for the necessary orders and
 [Image]          regulations to be ready by the end of
                  March.

 ..... snip .....

            Contents copyright © 1996-1998, The Toronto Star.
              ..........................................





>the new millennium reach a crescendo. Every comet, eclipse,
>earthquake, volcanic eruption or flood will tend to acquire
>millennarian significance, fueling apocalyptic expectations and fears.

 I expect that this is largely a USA phenomenon.
 It is too cold here in Canada to indulge in such fantasies.


>Responses to the millennium crisis
>
>     There have been at least six types of responses to the Millennium
>Bug. These are:
>
>     * early concern,
>     * problem denial,
>     * frantic remediation,
>     * individual survavalism,
>     * community self-sufficiency, and
>     * systemic transformation.

 I would add another, that is called GOVERNMENT LEADERSHIP.

 Governments can prepare people, now, to survive disruption of
 electrical, water, heat, sewage, food, disruptions.  Inform
 people now that the government has contingency plans in place
 and tell people now exactly what those plans are.  Public
 education on this scale could take several years.  We have a
 few months.

 Systemic transformation can come later, if we survive.
 I live in a city.  Many high rise buildings.  Many elderly
 and vulnerable persons.  Opportunists of all kinds.
 My concern is survival.  I'll change the system later.


>Community self-sufficiency
>
>     Among those who are preparing themselves for the crisis, there is
>a smaller but nevertheless significant number who are approaching it
>not from the individual but from the community perspective. They

 Government has a RESPONSIBILITY.  Citizens should demand that
 governments at all levels should lead or initiate or support
 community self-sufficiency.

 This may be a greater concern in Canada where we tend to have
 greater faith/reliance in government.


>Systemic transformation

 If I survive!

   .............................................
   Bob Olsen, Toronto            bobolsen@tao.ca
   .............................................