Re: [GKD] Optimistic WB/IMF economic forecasts

[Roberto Verzola <rverzola@phil.gn.apc.org>]

Twice, I've sent a message on this issue of optimistic forecasts on
the World Bank-sponsored GKD list, and twice the moderators did not
post my message. I sent the message below again today, my third
attempt to raise the issue.

I know there are also World Bank people on this list. I certainly hope
you will try to find the answer to my question. You have been
following the Y2K discussions closely, so you must be very familiar
with the economic implications of the crisis by now. It would be nice
if you could convince the World Bank to lead the international
leviathans in revising their optimistic projections to acknowledge the
impact of the Millennium Bomb on the global financial crisis.

Roberto Verzola
--------

Stefan Stackhouse:
 >>In short, the U.S. (and global) economy will be sinking into a
 >>recession. Think of it being at least as bad as 1973/74.

Patrick O'Beirne:
 >So we have had recessions before and will again. No surprises there,
 >although unpleasant.

So, both an apocalyptic pessimist like Stackhouse, as well as a
hopeful optimist like O'Beirne believe that a recession will happen.

Yet, major international institutions like the World Bank and the IMF
continue forecasting positive growth and recovery from the global
financial crisis starting 1999 and an even rosier picture for the year
2000. Many countries and national planners are drawing up plans based
on these incredible forecasts. I would like to ask the World Bank
people on this list to justify their optimistic economic forecasts in
view of what appears to be near-consensus among Y2K-watchers that the
global economy will take a worse downturn as a result of the
Millennium Bomb.

Roberto Verzola