Summary (Dec. 6-12, 1998)

[Y2K Moderator <i-y2k-mod@phil.gn.apc.org>]

SUMMARY OF INTERDOC-Y2K DISCUSSION LIST (DEC. 6-12, 1998)

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Two initial messages by moderator Roberto Verzola provided the list
background: the rationale for confronting the Y2K crisis with the
intention of reforming fundamental flaws in our technological and
economic thinking instead of simply going back to business as usual;
and the gain-maximizing strategy as one fundamental flaw of the
system.

At least four discussion threads emerged: 1) continuing risk
assessment, 2) flawed mindsets, 3) alternative mindsets for society,
and 4) resources and other announcements. We will present the summary
according to these four threads:

M-BOMB RISK ASSESSMENT

John Walker posted an article which estimated the risk of economic
collapse at 87% using some reasonable assumptions and at 15.7% using
1% possibility of failure in every major aspect of the economy. To the
get 32K article, send a message to: majordomo@jca.ax.apc.org and in
the message body (NOT the subject but the body), type the line:
get interdoc-y2k risks.y2k

To get Roberto Verzola's Millennium Bug article giving a more general
picture of the risks, send a message to: majordomo@jca.ax.apc.org and
in the message body (NOT the subject but the body), type the line:
get interdoc-y2k mbomb.y2k

rgriffith@sfasu.edu's Web page summarizes economic forecasts based on
the effect of y2k at http://cobweb.sfasu.edu/~rg/forecast.htm (now
updated to version 1.8, December, 1998)

Mark Sommer, Director of The Mainstream Media Project, cites a New
York Times front-page feature about possible late payments of welfare
checks as a result of Y2K-related computer breakdowns: "This is a
relatively little-noted problem that could affect millions of those
who can least afford to experience such delays."

Shelley Corbin calls attention to an online probability engine: "You
supply the numbers for each of several nodes in the infrastructure and
it calculates the interaction of the nodes to produce the odds of a
complete meltdown. Very sobering!" It is available at
http://www.y2knewswire.com/y2kengine.htm

Michael Gurstein forwarded a "best-case scenario" by Stefan
Stackhouse, as follows: 1999 shortages in survival equipment; bank
runs on smaller banks; stock market plunges; bank holiday in late
December 1999; planes grounded. New year will see no dramatic
disruption, but economic life will wind down throughout 2000 as
thousands of system failures occur outside the US, affecting the
global production web; world economy will sink into recession as bad
and perhaps worse than 1973/74; civil unrest may worsen. To get the
full text, send a message to: majordomo@jca.ax.apc.org and in the
message body (NOT the subject but the body), type the line:
get interdoc.y2k bestcase.y2k

In subsequent summaries, we will be giving less space to this thread.

FLAWED MINDSETS

Roberto Verzola: He suggests "gain-maximization" as a major flaw in
mindset that led to the Millennium Bomb: It "probably got its biggest
boost with Adam Smith, when he convinced everybody that an economic
agent which maximizes its own gain is also maximizing gain for society
as a whole, providing it with moral justification" and then it "took
off when we allowed in our laws the creation of a special kind of
legal person, one which is not a confusing bundle of mixed motivations
and emotions like a natural person is, but a person whose one and only
motivation was to maximize its own gain."

He also posted an article on the "globalist" versus the "modular"
approach, suggesting that the "globalist" approach was another
fundamental flaw. He says that successful designs usually used the
"modular" approach, whose prescriptions run counter to the present
policies of globalization.

Glenn Bacon: He disagrees with Roberto Verzola's analysis that the
Millennium Bug is the result of gain-maximization, and says it was due
to the need for compatibility with legacy systems. "Why don't you
focus on the most destructive 'gain maximizing' force - myopic
politicians with a decision horizon of the next election.  At least in
the US, they are doing the worst job of facing the Y2K problem."

Jan Hanson: He suggests that the use of money is a major flaw, because
it allows concentration of wealth way beyond human needs and scale.

ALTERNATIVE MINDSETS

Tom of bagelhole1@aol.com says: "the best, the most comfortable
contingency that I can imagine would be self-sustainable,
self-reliant, neighborhoods globally and locally before 2000. This is
the funky, cheap, simple type of self-sustainability, not the deep
ecology or the bio-regionalism, or anything that would take years to
implement. This is a comprehensive self sustainability that would be
more fitting for contingency for infrastructure rupture such as y2k
presents. Something that could be done before 2000."

Jan Hanson: He proposes the use of energy certificates, as suggested
by Hubbert. Hanson quotes Hubbert: "We keep our records of the
physical costs of production in terms of the amount of extraneous
energy degraded. We set industrial production arbitrarily at a rate
equal to the saturation of the physical capacity of our public to
consume. We distribute purchasing power in the form of energy
certificates to the public, the amount issued to each being equivalent
to his pro rata share of the energy-cost of the consumer goods and
services to be produced during the balanced-load period for which the
certificates are issued. These certificates bear the identification of
the person to whom issued and are non negotiable."


RESOURCES AND OTHER ANNOUNCEMENTS

1. A new list is beginning called Best of the Best at
<A HREF="http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=Milennium%20">
Millenium Salon</A>

2. Websites:
www.y2knet.com
www.artrans.com/msg/toc.htm
www.co-intelligence.org
www.year2000.com
www.milesresearch.com/ywk/ywk-links.htm