[interdoc-y2k 322] Oil and y2k

[Terry Cottam <di238@freenet.carleton.ca>]

Oil and Natural Gas: Are They the Real Problems in Y2K?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/rc062199.html 

(Can anyone verify or refute this article from other sources? Here is
an excerpt:)

     "Overall, these sources estimate that based on prior limited
testing, they are expecting a 10 to 20% ratio of failure, or multiple
embedded systems going down on each oil well. There will be no parts
to fix them and no replacement systems available for quite a long
while. These sources tell me that the major oil companies have adopted
a FOF policy (fix on fail), because it is the only affordable and
practical approach. Plus, there's no time to get it all fixed anyway.
You should also keep in mind (according to my sources) that even if
the fail rate is only a 0.1 (or one-tenth) of 1% fail rate on embedded
chips within a system, there's a lot of embedded systems on each well.
The quantity of systems on board is still large enough to shut-down
virtually every large well in the USA, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf
States plus most offshore platforms. Remember that I am speaking of
only large wells that are indeed computerized. Although most if not
all large wells do have these embedded chips systems, there still may
be a handful of large wells that have eluded modernization. The
embedded systems really have paid for themselves on large wells. The
oil companies realized that and converted those wells.

     "I didn't even mention the nightmares that confound such a
situation IF the electricity is out, and/or the phones don't work.
That only compounds the problem. Remember too, that for much of the
oil industry this will occur in the dead of winter in regions where
freezing temperatures will play havoc. Also, if a well goes down for
protracted period due to Y2k ramifications... chances are new wells
will have to be drilled to replace lost oil production - especially if
it is an old well that was using water injection techniques. Wells
such as these are extremely vulnerable to shut-downs.

     "BOTTOM LINE on Oil Wells: Expect a near complete stoppage in
crude oil pumping on January 1, 2000."