[interdoc-y2k 305] FW: Robert Theobald -- The growing split in the Y2K debate

["Halim Dunsky" <halim@y2kcommunity.org>]

Robert Theobald reminds us that the Y2K discussion lives in a larger
frame. Very stimulating reading.

-----Original Message-----
From: Robert Theobald [mailto:theobald@iea.com]
Sent: Saturday, March 27, 1999 9:55 AM
Subject: new piece on Y2k


I have not sent out much material to you in recent months. I think
that this one breaks new ground. I'd appreciate your reactions to it.


The growing split in the Y2K debate

Robert Theobald


You are welcome to use this piece in any useful way  by forwarding or
printing it. (It is useful for me to be informed if you do so.) If you
receive this as a forwarded message, and want to stay in touch with my
further writing please let me know. I am a Spokane-based speaker and
writer. My latest book is Reworking Success. For more information on
this pattern of thinking go to www.resilientcommunities.org and check
out our planned videoconversations - the next is on April 8.)


Many conventional discussions of Y2K suggest that the extreme
positions around the millennium bug are to see it as a bump in the
road or the “end of the world as we know it.” It is now clear that the
failure to deal with the issue internationally guarantees that
problems will be significant. But more critically, some people now
welcome the prospect that we shall see the end of the world as we know
it rather than fearing this result.

Great gulfs are opening up within the debate over Y2K. For most
people, the challenge is still to make sure that the bug, caused by
listing dates with two figures rather than four, does not disrupt the
smooth functioning of economies and societies. The ideal result for
this group is that January 1, 2000 comes and goes without disruption
and is a non-event.

The number of informed people who believe that this can happen is now
very small. It is now clear that there will be disruptions. The only
question is the scale. A growing amount of effort is therefore going
toward “contingency” planning to make sure that approaches have been
developed to deal with the dangers that can emerge. The ideal is that
there should be as little disruption of the “normal” course of life as
possible. There is much controversy over what is required to achieve
this result most efficiently but for most of those working in this
direction the goal is completely clear.

The consensus about the return to past models is challenged by those
who are aware that the human race can only thrive if its dominant ways
of thinking and acting are profoundly different in the twenty-first
century than those in the twentieth. There are a very large number of
people who share this view although they are divided into a number of
movements: peace, environmental, common ground, right livelihood and
many other issues.

A lot of people in these groups are still ignoring the Y2K issues.
Those who are not are taking two profoundly different stances. One
argues that the critical need is to mobilize as much activity as
possible around Y2K so as to minimize suffering and breakdowns. They
then argue that raising broad issues of fundamental change is likely
to get in the way of the necessary mobilization and downplay their
longer-run concerns.

The other group, to which I belong, argues that Y2K must be used as an
early warning of profound dangers ahead. It is like the canary in the
mine which used to warn of deadly gasses before they could be
perceived by miners. Y2K should serve as a wake-up call so that we
become aware of the fragility of the technological systems we have
created in the second half of the twentieth century, their
unsustainability and their lack of resilience.

This group also argues that the dilemmas of Y2K cannot be dealt with
using current patterns of organization and consciousness. We quote
Einstein who argued that problems could not be solved with the
consciousness which created them. Y2K calls out for cooperation across
boundaries  a recognition that we need to hang together for otherwise
we shall hang separately.

In addition, this group argues that development of creative energy is
far more likely using a broad canvas than with a narrow emphasis on
the Y2K issue. It believes that people are already suffering from Y2K
fatigue and that only a broader vision can provide the scope for the
large-scale shifts which must take place in the near future to avoid
major breakdowns around the world.

Y2K is not an isolated phenomenon. It is part of a mindset which sets
human beings against each other and against nature. It is a symptom of
a world which emphasizes economics over society and the environment.
It is part of the short-run thinking of the industrial world.

I have been intensively involved in the Y2K issue for a year. I have
realized in the last few weeks that it is too narrow a container for
the work we have to do. It is no more than a warning sign showing the
major changes in thinking that are required as we learn to live in a
world where we must cooperate if we are to survive. We must also stop
organizing to achieve a machine-like socioeconomic system and learn to
operate together as fallible human beings.

To do this, we must realize that our real needs are spiritual rather
than materialistic. The most wonderful surprise is how many people
share  this understanding.  They may express it in different ways:
from a religious perspective or a desire to revive traditional values
or from the vantage point of an ever-growing number of spiritual
traditions. But the recognition is there. It is our challenge to give
people an opportunity to express it.

If we succeed we shall look back at the end of the twentieth century
as the end of the world as we knew it and rejoice.


Blessings and Peace,
Robert

East 202 Rockwood Blvd, #1,
Spokane, Wa 99202, USA
509-835-3569
e-mail:theobald@iea.com
http://www.transform.org/transform/tlc/rtpage.html

1999 will be a tumultuous year. How do we cooperate to create strange
attractors which change dynamics in positive directions? For our
process answer see www.resilientcommunities.org

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Halim Dunsky <mailto:halim@y2kcommunity.org>
Executive Editor, Y2K Community Project <http://www.y2kcommunity.org>

Building Communities for Y2K and a Sustainable Future