[interdoc-y2k 296] Delaying Y2K

[Bob Olsen <bobolsen@tao.ca>]

Date: Sun, 21 Mar 1999 17:21:01
To: y2kplan@egroups.com
From: John Walker <jwalker@hwcn.org>
Subject: [y2kplan] Temporary Y2K fix may last only a generation


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Temporary Y2K fix may last only a generation

By TED BRIDIS -- The Associated Press
http://www.canoe.com/TechNews9903/16_y2k_2.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The most common technique used to fix computers
vulnerable to Year 2000 failures is only a short-term remedy, and
even advocates of the method acknowledge it will require other
expensive repairs or replacements within a generation. 

The temporary fix, using a sophisticated twist of logic to fool
computers, is highly controversial among insiders because it's
intended to work for only a few decades -- typically 30 years. One
expert describes computers already fixed with the technique as
"little ticking time bombs waiting to go off." 

The Clinton administration and industry analysts estimate the method
is being used to patch 80 percent of computers in the worldwide
repair effort expected to cost $300 billion. 

The Y2K bug exists because some computers and software recognize
only two-digit years. They won't work properly in 2000, when they
will assume "00" is 1900. If computers aren't fixed, the digital
meltdown could cause problems for banks, airlines, power and water
plants and even traffic lights. 

So why is the technique, called "windowing," used at all? 

Simple: It saves money because it's quicker and easier, even if it
only works for a specific window of time. The permanent fix, called
"expansion," requires a tedious line-by-line repair of all the dates
expressed in two-digit years rather than four digits. 

Experts hope "windowing" will prove adequate until these computers
are replaced -- or until programmers can devote enough time and money
to make permanent repairs. 

In some cases, corporate executives and government bureaucrats
approved using the method knowing that problems won't resurface
until after they retire or change jobs. 

"It's a Band-Aid, the way building a house out of wood and
fiberboard is," said Jim Duggan, a researcher with the Gartner Group
consulting company of Stamford, Conn. "You hope you'll be somewhere
else before it falls down." 

"It gets them off the hook," agreed Michael P. Harden, president of
Century Technology Services Inc. consultants of Fairfax, Va. "I
don't think some people expect to be in those same jobs. Fix it now,
get everybody off your back -- and in five or 10 years if there's a
problem, you won't be around to have to deal with it." 

Marvin Thornton led repair efforts inside one of the nation's
largest banks, $40 billion Southtrust Corp. in Birmingham, Ala. He
fought hard against using windowing to fix his bank's computers but
complained that some contractors insisted on the technique. 

"It's really aggravating," said Thornton. "They've taken the quick
and dirty path and not really fixed the problem." 

The federal government, which expects to spend $6.4 billion and has
ordered its most important computers fixed by the end of March,
doesn't discourage agencies from using windowing. But it warns of
consequences. 

"It's like the Fram oil filter guy: You can pay me now or you can
pay me later," said Keith Rhodes, a technical director at the General
Accounting Office, which monitors repair efforts at federal
agencies. 

"It's not solving your problem. It's delaying the inevitable." 

Some government agencies, such as the Social Security
Administration, have generally shunned the method. The Internal
Revenue Service allows it only rarely. The State Department is using
it on nearly half its most important computers, but also plans to
replace those systems within five years. 

Other agencies, such as the Federal Aviation Administration, freely
acknowledge using the technique. The agency's top Y2K expert, Ray
Long, says he doesn't consider it a problem or even just a
short-term solution. 

Using windowing, programmers instruct software to guess the century
for dates that fall within a specific "window" of time, such as the
next three decades. The computer interprets the year based on a
future so-called hinge date, or pivot, that programmers choose
arbitrarily. 

For example, a software program with a pivot of "30" will interpret
years "00" through "29" as 21st century dates, but will assume years
"30" through "99" are during the 1900s. Some programmers use pivots
of "50" or "70" to buy even more time, but their choices are limited
by a variety of technical factors. A pivot of "70," for example,
might cause problems for computers trying to process birthdates
earlier than 1969. 

Once the pivot date is past, those computers will need to be
replaced or patched again as they begin quietly contaminating data by
making wrong assumptions about the century. 

Windowing is fraught with other risks, too. Different programs
assigned different pivots can cause havoc when companies or
governments try to share information, unless they take complex
precautions. 

Testing typically takes longer, too. Windowing problems might not
appear until January, when computers start guessing which century to
use, said Noah Ross, a consultant and vice president for Cap Gemini
Group. In contrast, if the permanent "expansion" fix is done
incorrectly, the problem often is immediately obvious. 

"It's an issue of pragmatism," explained Ed Yourdon, a consultant.
"Anybody who had to go through that choice was very much aware of
the tradeoffs. We'd like to do it the right way ... and we don't have
time, so even though it's a quick and dirty approach, we have no
alternative. Too bad." 

"It's a compromise," agreed Duggan. "People with time and money took
the high road and did full expansion." 

Most people using windowing realize it's not a permanent solution,
said Jack Gribben, spokesman for President Clinton's Year 2000
council. "The window closes, so to speak, and you're back at square
one." 

Harden, the private consultant, compared the computers fixed with
windowing to "time bombs." 

"We'll replace this in 20 years, but isn't that exactly the same
thing we said back in the 60s?" Harden said. "The same people who
created the problem are now fixing it, and installing something that
will have the very same problem down the road." 

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   .............................................
   Bob Olsen, Toronto            bobolsen@tao.ca
   .............................................