Re: do we need a master game manager?

["Jay Hanson" <j@qmail.com>]

----- Original Message -----
From: Roberto Verzola <rverzola@phil.gn.apc.org>

>Hi Jay. Thank you for going to the level of the details. I think
>discussion at this level will be very fruitful. Before proceeding, may
>I ask one question: have you at least tried to become more familiar
>with the recent developments in the studies of self-organizing systems
>and complexity I am referring to?

Unless you can give me a specific reference, I am not familiar with
your material.  But I can't see how this principle of serendipity has
any basis in the real world -- history argues against it.

A really excellent account of life in a typical seventeenth century
European village, where population and resources are in natural
"balance", can be found in AFTER THE BLACK DEATH, by George Huppert;
Indiana Univ. Pr., 1998.

Sennely is a typical self-sufficient village near the French City of
Orleans. It consists of subsistence farmers whose needs are supplied
locally: rye grain for bread, cattle, pigs, apples, pears, plums,
chestnuts, garden vegetables, fish in the ponds, and bees for honey
and wax.

Population and resources are more-or-less in balance because of the
poor health of the residents: they tended to be stunted, bent over,
and of a yellowish complexion. By the time children were ten or
twelve, they assumed the generally unpleasant appearance of their
elders: they moved slowly, had poor teeth, and distended bellies.
Girls reached the age of 18 before first ministration.

Malnutrition was the norm. One third of the babies died in the first
year and only one third reached adulthood. Most couples had only one
or two children before their marriage was broken by the death of one
parent. "Yet, for all that, Sennely was not badly off when compared to
other villages." [p. 3]

In short, Sennely lived up to Boulding's First Theorem: "The Dismal
Theorem"

"If the only ultimate check on the growth of population is misery,
then the population will grow until it is miserable enough to stop its
growth."

If one adds technology, one gets the "The Utterly Dismal Theorem"

This theorem "states that any technical improvement can only relieve
misery for a while, for so long as misery is the only check on
population, the [technical] improvement will enable population to
grow, and will soon enable more people to live in misery than before.
The final result of [technical] improvements, therefore, is to
increase the equilibrium population which is to increase the total sum
of human misery."

---------------

Dorner's THE LOGIC OF FAILURE presents empirical studies of people
trying to manage complex systems -- communities.  In one study, even
with clearly defined goals and simulation software (in other words,
good feedback), only one of twelve was able to avoid dieoff.

"An individual's reality model can be right or wrong, complete or
incomplete. As a rule it will be both incomplete and wrong, and one
would do well to keep that probability in mind." [p. 42]

However, I agree wholeheartedly with your goal of diversity -- for the
reasons you gave -- and will address the political barriers in a
separate post.

Jay