self-sufficient now, systemic transformation later?

[Roberto Verzola <rverzola@phil.gn.apc.org>]

I've read this view from at least three list members: let's worry
about self-sufficiency now and solve the immediate problems first.
We'll worry about systemic transformation later.

Unfortunately, I don't think this will work. I think changing mindsets
should go hand-in-hand with solving immediate problems.

When a complex system enters a chaotic stage, it reaches a bifurcation
point at which several possible outcomes can emerge, in addition to
the present state of the system. It is also during this stage when the
system is most sensitive to perturbations.

An effort at systemic transformation which may seem puny during a
non-chaotic stage can be decisive during the chaotic stage. Our aim
should be to reach what is called a "phase-change" to occur during
this stage when the system is very sensitive to initial conditions.
Once the phase-change occurs, it becomes self-reinforcing and is
rapidly propagated throughout the system, ensuring this particular
outcome and foreclosing the other possible outcomes.

The self-sufficient communities (using what have been called "simple
funky" steps) provide the favorable conditions to implement a
"phase-change" and change mindsets. But the changing of mindsets (the
"systemic transformation") must occur during the same chaotic period,
while the system is sensitive to initial conditions.

When this period passes without the mindsets having been changed, the
period of extreme sensitivity to small perturbations will have passed,
and all our efforts will again seem puny because the system will have
settled back to its stable state. This is the "business as usual"
scenario.

Roberto Verzola