Re: Systemic Reform

["Jay Hanson" <j@qmail.com>]

----- Original Message -----
From: Glenn Bacon <gcbacon@roadrunner.com>

 >Systemic reform will have to await a more permanent, non-reversible
 >disaster.  The most likely is the end of cheap oil (50-100 years?).
 >Global warming, if it has acute, personal impact might be another
 >trigger.  World-wide nuclear or biological terrorism is an outside
 >possibility.  But I believe it is impossible to promote the debatable
 >and abstract issue of gain-maximization to the level of disaster in
 >the minds of the general public.

We are in general agreement with respect to the Y2K issue, but not the
oil issue.

Forecasts about the abundance of oil are usually warped by
inconsistent definitions of "reserves." In truth, every year for the
past two decades the industry has pumped more oil than it has
discovered, and production will soon be unable to keep up with rising
demand.

According to a March, 1998, Scientific American article by Colin J.
Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère Global oil production is expected to
"peak" around 2005. See THE END OF CHEAP OIL at:
http://dieoff.com/page140.htm

In November, 1997, the International Energy Agency (IEA) convened an
Oil Conference in Paris. Laherrère and Campbell presented three papers
on oil depletion (against Adelman and Lynch from MIT).

As a result of this conference, IEA prepared a paper for the G8 Energy
Ministers' Meeting in Moscow March, 31, 1998. IEA followed Laherrere
and Campbell's view and forecast a peak in conventional oil for 2010
at 78.9 Mb/d and decrease in 2020 at 72.2 Mb/d. [ Source: Laherrere
personal correspondence ] See WORLD ENERGY PROSPECTS TO 2020.
http://www.iea.org/g8/world/oilsup.htm

According to Richard Duncan, this represents a significant reversal of
IEA position: "This is a real stand-down for them because until
recently they were in the Julian Simon no-limits camp." [ personal
correspondence ] See Duncan's energy paper THE WORLD PETROLEUM
LIFE-CYCLE at: http://dieoff.com/page133.htm

Franco Bernabé, chief executive of the Italian oil company ENI SpA,
expects the world to experience 1970s-style oil shocks starting
sometime between 2000 and 2005.
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/98/0615/6112084a.htm . Also see
http://reports.guardian.co.uk/articles/1998/7/26/13026.html .

A good rundown on the energy issues is avaliable at
http://dieoff.com/page143.htm


Jay