Y2K planning

[Bob Olsen <bobolsen@tao.ca>]

       "The best response to control (Y2K) panic would
       be good information and good collective planning."


Date: Sun, 13 Dec 1998 22:42:54 +0000
From: Chris Lowe <clowe@igc.org>
Reply-To: clowe@igc.org
Organization: Amanzi Editorial & Curricular Services
To: "Conference labr.party" <labr.party@conf.igc.apc.org>
CC: circ@azstarnet.com, bobolsen@tao.ca
Subject: Re: Y2K Best Case Scenario

Since Stefan Stackhouse in his "best case scenario" for consequences
of the Y2K computer bug, forwarded to this list, invokes the specter
of the Great Depression, it may be well to remember a key thought from
that period:

"We have nothing to fear but fear itself" - Franklin D. Roosevelt

I don't want to dismiss the issue out of hand. On the other hand,
there is a good deal in internet-based discussions that has the flavor
of e-mail virus hoaxes on a grand scale.

The e-mail virus hoaxes play on the fears of people who feel that
important parts of their lives and substantial investments depend on
technology whose workings and vulnerabilities they don't understand.
Scaring ourselves in the dark over Y2K has much the same flavor,
though the stakes are potentially much bigger.

In my view, progressives who think we ought to take this seriously
should not spend too much time with scenario-spinning. Instead what is
needed is improved transparency and information flow about civil
defense disaster response systems.

In fact the main dangers need not exist, as they are the dangers of
panic responses. The best response to control panic would be good
information and good collective planning.

An interesting question is whether the lack of provision of good
information, and lack of orientation to collective, planned response,
on the part of those circulating the scare scenarios, is based in a
the excessively individualistic aspects of cyberculture?

Or is it the opportunistic aspects? Cui bono? Panic sells, short term,
selfishly.

A couple of weeks ago the Washington state office of emergency
preparedness issued an assessment of the likely effects of the Y2K
bug. They said people should expect to lose power and perhaps other
utilities for perhaps three days. In other words, a problem on the
order of a hurricane (though less physically destructive in other
respects).

On the other hand, a hurricane hitting the whole country and other
countries at the same time.

This is not something impossible to prepare for, nor something that
necessarily leads to devastating consequences. On the other hand, the
uncertainties are something that free markets are not capable of
handling by themselves, unregulated. It is obvious, predictable case
of market failure. It is a case for social planning.

Chris Lowe
...................


   .............................................
   Bob Olsen, Toronto            bobolsen@tao.ca
   .............................................